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Data e horário: terça-feira (16/09), 11h30 - 12h30
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Título: Incorporating behavioral change and risk perception in epidemiological models
Resumo: We examine how behavioral changes in vaccinated people who do not develop immunity influence the dynamics of a directly transmitted disease and key indices such as the basic reproductive number and vaccine effectiveness. We propose a model that considers a vaccine with three facets of failure: ``take'', ``degree'', and ``duration''. Additionally, the behavioral change of non-immune vaccinated individuals is modeled through a parameter that adjusts their contact rate based on compliance with mitigation measures.
Our results allow us to visualize the role of behavioral change in various factors influencing disease transmission dynamics. First, we demonstrate the existence of a backward bifurcation common in models for not fully effective vaccines. Second, we define a behavioral index threshold, which serves as a key indicator for determining whether the disease persists due to behavioral effects. Finally, our results highlight that both the behavioral index and the initial value of the infected population can play a decisive role in determining whether vaccine effectiveness reaches negative values.
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